Friday, 13 November 2009

Neoclassical Theory Vs. Prospect Theory and The Endowment Theory!

This lecture was based on the endowment theory and how it can be explained. My group read a paper by John A, List which looks at the neoclassical and prospect theories.
I found this paper quite interesting as i can see how it the endowment effect can play its part everyday choices!
The endowment effect is pretty straight forward. Basically it is when a person values a good/item that is their property higher than they would if it was not theirs! Therefore, if someone starts of with an endowed good (An item that is theirs or that they have been given) then they are more likely to keep it rather than swap it for something else even if the other item is of the same value.
This effect is in line with the Prospect Theory because according to the prospect theory we value an outcome relative to our reference point. Also that loosing the item we posses is weighted more heavily than gaining another.
However the neoclassical model would say that this endowment effect is mealy down to a mistake by the consumer because of their inexperience, and that in time they will learn to make rational choices that will maximize their profit - in line with neoclassical view.
I agree that the endowment effect is an irrational choice, as it is a mistake that results in not maximizing ones profit! However i can understand that if you receive something then it may be hard to give it up, perhaps if the item has more sentimental value then there would be a bigger endowment effect? Also i think it is believable that once a person has lots of experience in trading in a certain area then they will show a lesser endowment effect, i think this may be because they learn to be more certain of their preference and the value of items. Maybe through trial and error, for example if someone losses a lot of money through not trading goods because they were endowed then they may overcome this effect.
List created an experiment to test whether consumers do actually overcome the endowment effect. His experiment took place in a real market place. He found that when a non-dealer ( a person with little experience in dealing goods in the market place) is endowed with a good they were four times more likely to keep that good rather than exchanging it for another good of the same price, this can be explained by the prospect theory. However, the more experienced dealers did not show any preference for trading for the other good whether they had been endowed with it or not. This is in line with the neoclassical view that people make rational decisions, taking all information into account.
So the endowment effect was only present in the non dealers, therefor the experienced dealer had seemed to learn over time to treat goods leaving their endowment as an opportunity cost rather than a loss! Meaning that the prospect theory can predict the actions of non dealers and the neoclassical theory can predict the actions of experience dealers.
In class we were not able to present the work we had done in groups however i did feel i had a good understanding of the reading and would have been confident to present it to the class.
Next, we have to start on the wiki with our groups, as we don't have a class next week i will spend time during the week doing the reading for that on decision framing!

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